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With the 2026 WSOP Main Event final table still weeks away, prediction market bettors are already weighing in on who will win poker’s biggest prize. A Polymarket market covering the outcome has drawn just over $10,000 in trading volume so far, a figure expected to climb as the Aug. 3 restart approaches.
Lucas Jumalon, 22, sits atop the market at around 35%, well ahead of Rami Hammoud at 16% and Michael Gagliano at 11%. Jamie Shaevel and Greg Mueller are each trading near 9%, while Mario Boos, Han Feng, Lauri Saaskilahti and Evagoras Evagorou round out the field. Because Polymarket odds are shaped by liquidity rather than fixed bookmaking, the listed percentages add up to more than 100%.
Jumalon’s favorite status stems from his commanding 194 million-chip stack, or 129 big blinds, which more than doubles Hammoud’s total and exceeds the next three stacks combined. It marks the largest chip-lead share for a final-table leader since the Main Event moved to a nine-player format.
Despite the strong position, Jumalon’s market price has slipped from roughly 54 cents shortly after trading opened to about 35 cents, without any poker-related news driving the move. Analysts attribute the drop to thin liquidity, where a handful of large trades can swing prices, along with traders recalibrating for tournament variance after initially overweighting his chip lead.
Hammoud, a Playground Poker Club regular making his first six-figure score, stands out as the top alternative. Shaevel, primarily a cash-game player with eight Main Event cashes, and bracelet winners Gagliano and Mueller round out the mid-tier contenders.
Shorter stacks Feng, Saaskilahti and Evagorou face steeper climbs, though each has already made history for their respective countries. Traders caution that with a $10 million top prize on the line, the odds could shift dramatically after just one hand once play resumes.
