You know that hand. It’s an instant call in a Cash Game, but it busts you in 10th place in a major tournament. You walk away blaming bad luck. But math says you committed financial suicide.
The culprit has a name: Risk Premium.
If you want to stop bubbling in 2025, you need to understand that not all chips are created equal.
What is Risk Premium? (No PhD Required)
In Cash Games, 1 chip always equals $1. If you have 51% equity, you call. In Tournaments (ICM), losing chips hurts way more than winning chips helps.
Risk Premium is the “extra tax” of equity you need to justify a Call, based on the risk of elimination. Basically: You need a much better hand to call an All-in than you do to shove one.
The Mistake Costing You Thousands
Imagine we are on the Final Table bubble. You have 20 Big Blinds. The Chip Leader (80 BBs) puts you All-in. You look down at A♦ Q♠. Cash Game? Snap call. Bubble? Fold.
Why? Because there is a player on the other table with 2 Big Blinds about to bust. If you call and lose, your prize is zero. If you fold and the short stack busts, you guarantee a Payjump. The “risk premium” to call here is massive. You’d need Kings or Aces. AQ goes in the muck.
How to Adjust Your Bubble Play
- Be a Nit When Calling: When the bubble tightens, your Call button should gather dust. Unless it’s the absolute top of your range, fold. Let the others bust.
- Be a Maniac When Shoving: The reverse logic is true. Since your opponents are also scared of busting (high Risk Premium), you can shove All-in with a much wider range (any Ace, small pairs, connectors) because they will fold almost everything.
The golden rule: Be the one applying pressure, not the one taking it.
